Nic Carter: Quantum canaries cannot provide sufficient warning; Bitcoin needs to immediately begin preparations for quantum migration

Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, published a lengthy article on the X platform pointing out that the quantum computing "canary warning" mechanism cannot provide sufficient buffer time for BTC. Classical computers can currently crack approximately 117 to 130 bits of the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP), and results below this threshold are often questioned for "classical cheating" or pre-set answers, thus failing to form an effective signal.

Nic Carter believes that once quantum computers truly break this classical limit, the time left for a direct attack on the 256-bit secp256k1 curve used by Bitcoin may only be a matter of months, while the migration to post-quantum (PQ) signatures after Bitcoin's completion could take years. Whether setting up quantum cracking bounty addresses or relying on Satoshi's early dormant addresses as on-chain warnings cannot guarantee sufficient early detection of risks. Therefore, the truly feasible approach is not to wait for clear warnings but to immediately begin preparations for post-quantum migration. Previously, BitMEX Research proposed a quantum freeze alternative: the "canary address" trigger mechanism.

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