Fidelity Mid-Year Review: 6 Key Trends in Digital Assets for 2026

Author: Fidelity Digital Assets

Compiled by: Jiahua, ChainCatcher

Mid-year is a good checkpoint for investors to assess how market dynamics have changed and whether their judgments from the beginning of the year still hold.

In the "2026 Outlook," the Fidelity Digital Assets research team believes that the key this year is not an immediate price increase, but a more subtle dynamic: the structural "remodeling" of the entire digital asset ecosystem. Although price performance has been occasionally flat and sometimes volatile this year, a closer look reveals that several underlying trends are continuously advancing.

This article summarizes the progress of several key themes from the "2026 Outlook" to date, pointing out which of our judgments have been validated, which have diverged, and what these changes may mean for the future.

1: Accelerated Integration of Digital Assets and Capital Markets

We previously anticipated that the integration of digital assets and traditional capital markets would continue to advance by 2026. So far, this trend is indeed moving forward, with some areas progressing even faster than expected.

Despite market fluctuations, the demand for exposure to digital assets through mainstream financial channels remains strong, and traditional platforms continue to expand their product lines.

Notably, the open interest in spot Bitcoin ETP options (which are not expected to launch until November 2024) is now comparable to options settled directly in Bitcoin, reflecting a continuous increase in adoption rates among institutions and mainstream investors.

The momentum in the tokenization space is also strengthening, with activity seemingly exceeding expectations. Traditional financial institutions are increasingly launching blockchain-based investment products, while large exchanges are collaborating with or acquiring stakes in digital asset platforms to broaden distribution channels and connect with on-chain infrastructure.

Meanwhile, regulatory clarity is also improving. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly issued guidelines to establish classifications for digital assets, and the advancement of legislation such as the CLARITY Act indicates that market participants will welcome a clearer framework.

Overall, these developments suggest that digital assets are increasingly integrating into the broader financial system, driven by market demand and infrastructure expansion.

2: Rights of Token Holders Gradually Gaining Attention, but Still Unclear

We previously anticipated that by 2026, the interests of token holders would become more closely tied, with more on-chain enterprises prioritizing mechanisms like buybacks and clearer ownership.

So far, this direction seems unchanged, and experiments across the ecosystem are ongoing: from reserve-based buyback dynamics (e.g., Hyperliquid/USDC alliance) to governance and structural updates like the Aave DAO/Labs reorganization.

However, despite the expanding adoption of these mechanisms, a clear "token holder rights premium" has not yet been fully reflected in market pricing. This trend is advancing but remains in its early stages, as investors are still assessing which models can truly deliver sustained value accumulation.

3: Potential Shift in AI and Mining

We previously suggested that the competition for AI computing power might stabilize Bitcoin's hash rate growth, as miners redirect energy and infrastructure towards potentially more profitable avenues. This dynamic may be manifesting this year: the 30-day average hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by approximately 8.8% and 7.8%, respectively.

While some of this can be attributed to seasonal factors, particularly winter-related power restrictions, the recent recovery (with hash rate rebounding about 1.3% from its low point and difficulty increasing about 8.8%) indicates that weather alone cannot fully explain this shift.

Looking at a longer trajectory, the growth rate of hash power has slowed compared to previous years, which may be an early signal of structural change. The business of AI data centers is becoming increasingly profitable, especially for large operators who can secure power infrastructure, which seems to be a driving force behind this trend.

Although still in its early stages, the observed slowdown in growth aligns with initial judgments and may reflect that miners are gradually shifting towards other sources of income.

4: Bitcoin at a New Turning Point

We previously anticipated that increasing the amount of data that can be written with the OP_RETURN opcode would not significantly inflate the blockchain (OP_RETURN is used for writing data on-chain, and since it requires a fee, relaxing its data limit has not led to abuse or network bloat). So far, the data seems to support this judgment.

The usage of larger OP_RETURN sizes (≥84 bytes) has remained relatively unchanged, and the overall growth of the blockchain remains within the predicted range (approximately 1.35–2.5MB). Other block utilization metrics indicate that capacity remains below 50%, suggesting that the increased data flexibility has not placed substantial pressure on the network.

Meanwhile, the focus has shifted to more macro network dynamics. Bitcoin Knots nodes have shown significant volatility, rapidly rising and then quickly falling, raising speculation about potential Sybil-like activities.

According to current data, Bitcoin Core nodes still account for about 77% of the network, while Knots nodes account for about 17%. Although still a minority, this presents a risk of unexpected splits—while the probability is low, it is not zero: under certain conditions, Knots nodes could diverge into a stagnant or less secure chain, which could occur in approximately 80 days based on current estimates.

However, Core's dominant share continues to anchor network consensus. Meanwhile, momentum around long-term security upgrades is also increasing. BIP-360 has been simplified to introduce quantum-resistant output types (Pay-to-Merkle-Root, abbreviated as P2MR); ongoing research on OP_CHECKSHRINCS reflects exploration into hash-based post-quantum signature schemes.

While there is no definitive timeline for the emergence of quantum threats, these developments indicate that the industry is increasingly prioritizing early preparations for the future security of the network.

5: Bears Temporarily in Control

In January of this year, we outlined two scenarios where bulls and bears would be evenly matched entering 2026, anticipating that macro conditions would lead to a nonlinear trend, despite structural fundamentals improving.

So far this year, the bearish scenario has largely prevailed: Bitcoin has fallen by 13%, driven by deleveraging triggered by liquidations, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties leading the market to expect further rate hikes. However, recent market performance reveals a more subtle dynamic.

After an initial round of selling triggered by recent geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin rebounded and outperformed traditional assets during the same period, which may reflect a demand for high liquidity, neutral assets during times of stress.

Meanwhile, structural positives remain, including the continued formation of institutional capital, gradual improvement in regulatory clarity, and the expansion of global liquidity.

Although the short-term environment remains constrained, our broader judgment still seems valid, albeit with uneven progress.

6: Gold Strongly Maintains, What Happens Next?

We previously pointed out that it is not surprising for gold to have another strong year, supported by central bank demand for gold and the global trend of gradually moving away from the dollar system.

So far this year, gold rebounded nearly 30% amid geopolitical tensions, then retreated to a more moderate increase of about 3–4%. Despite the pullback, gold may still outperform the market by the end of the year.

Evidence supporting the move away from the dollar system is also increasing, including some emerging alternative settlement methods, such as Iran accepting Bitcoin for toll payments and payments related to activities in the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, central bank demand for gold remains strong. Recent data shows that accumulation is ongoing, and notably, gold has surpassed the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds to become a major component of global reserves.

The performance of gold and the continued demand from central banks aligns closely with our initial judgments; however, the anticipated strong performance of Bitcoin has yet to materialize.

Conclusion: Building Strength Beneath the Surface

As we reach mid-year, the digital asset landscape for 2026 reflects a balance between short-term pressures and long-term progress. Several themes from the "Outlook" are developing as expected, particularly regarding institutional participation, regulation, and infrastructure; however, others remain in early stages or have not yet fully materialized.

For investors, this indicates the need to look beyond short-term price fluctuations to see how structural changes are taking shape. Many foundational elements supporting the next phase of growth seem to be thickening, even if they have not yet fully manifested.