Data: Bitcoin short positions are overly concentrated; if it breaks through $82,000, it may trigger a large-scale short squeeze
Data shows that the implied volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to 36%, reaching a nearly 8-month low, indicating that the market expects BTC to continue fluctuating in the short term. The decline in volatility itself does not represent the direction of the market, but current derivatives market data suggests that shorts may have become overly concentrated. If BTC breaks through $82,000, it could trigger a large-scale short squeeze.
CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows that a large number of BTC short positions are concentrated in the $78,000--$83,000 range. Meanwhile, BTC has failed to regain the $90,000 level for nearly 4 months, and some shorts have begun to establish stronger bearish expectations. In addition, Glassnode data shows that the 30-day options Delta Skew for BTC currently remains at 14%, indicating a significant premium for put options compared to call options, reflecting that professional traders are still more concerned about the downside risk of BTC.
The current expectation for BTC to pull back to $72,000 has been partially priced in by the market, but if BTC breaks through $82,000 with increased volume, it could trigger a more intense leveraged short covering rally.
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