Bitcoin researchers evaluate Google's quantum paper: The probability of quantum cracking Bitcoin by 2032 is at least 10%

By: rootdata|2026/03/31 15:05:11

btc-42">Bitcoin security researcher and Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake published a discussion on the timeline for quantum computing to crack Bitcoin.

Justin Drake believes that the findings of Google's quantum AI white paper are conservative. "By 2032, quantum computers will have at least a 10% chance of recovering the secp256k1 ECDSA private key from leaked public keys. While it still feels unlikely that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) will emerge before 2030, it is undoubtedly time to start preparing."

Justin Drake also stated that achieving commercially viable Bitcoin pow-220">proof of work through Grover's algorithm will not happen in the short term. "We are talking about decades, or even centuries later. This observation should help shift the focus of the discussion onto ECDSA and Schnorr. As an unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I still believe that Bitcoin proof of work has failed due to the reduction in the security budget."

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