A certain Precision Forecasting Ceasefire Account has wagered $14,200 believing Trump will announce an end to military action against Iran by April 30.
By: theblockbeats.news|2026/04/12 06:27:15
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According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 6 minutes ago, a savvy money placed a bet of $14.2k on "Will Trump announce the end of military action against Iran by April 30?" The current probability of "Yes" is 33.9%.
This account's only historical trade was predicting the US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, with a profit of nearly $90k.
A delegation led by US Vice President JD Vance concluded a 21-hour US-Iran face-to-face negotiation in Islamabad, Pakistan, yesterday. Vance publicly confirmed during the pre-departure press conference that no peace agreement was reached. Due to Iran's refusal to accept US conditions, which include not seeking nuclear weapons, this high-level contact has collapsed, and the US delegation has now left Pakistan and returned to the United States.
Currently, the US maintains its largest military buildup in the Middle East since 2003, deploying two carrier strike groups led by the "Lincoln" and "Ford" in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and the Mediterranean, and significantly increasing the F-22 and F-15E fighter jet clusters in Israel and Jordan bases. The Pentagon has not initiated any substantive withdrawal process and has recently requested an additional $200 billion in war funding from Congress.
Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, it is inferred that the trader is not betting on the actual outcome of events but engaging in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x56b5aced8b60c4c0cfeb9215132a8eb5395cb0a2
Total Investment: $14.2k
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